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Since the overwhelming majority of the ppl on these forums see Xfire as solid proof for how a game is doing i present to you the xfire stats for DF: http://www.xfire.com/games/darkfall/Darkfall/ notice that it has been dropping since release? all those messages about "ppl waiting in line to purchase the game" make me laugh tbh. just a bit longer and it will fall under games like Anarchy Online (with about 10-12k subs atm) or are we gonna argue that DF players, playing a game that is solely advertised on the internet, are not using xfire at all? that suddenly the casual gamers are now using xfire instead of the die hard whiz kids out there? discuss |
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4/17/09 7:23:00 AM#2
I dont use xfire, its kinda crappy now.
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4/17/09 7:27:05 AM#3
Xfire is bonkers, been using it a lot though but to what end I always wonder and probably going to stop using it because it just sucks. My profile: www.xfire.com/profile/beltara |
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4/17/09 7:27:50 AM#4
Thanks for your excellent presentation. Very useful thread... He that lives upon Hope dies farting. |
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4/17/09 7:42:03 AM#5
Originally posted by 3on1
I could argue that the overwhelming majority of ppl on these forums have to be sheep incapable of critical thinking. Baaaa. I'd be wrong though because it's not the overwhelming majoity of ppl because the overwhelming majority neither knows how xfire works no doe they make any claims of it being proof of anything. It's a givien xfire numbers drop over time following the launch of almost every game. To defeat that trend a game must be hugely sucessful. "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." ~Greys Law |
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4/17/09 7:51:41 AM#6
Originally posted by 3on1
really why do you care? |
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4/17/09 7:54:56 AM#7
Originally posted by Zodan
wow dude really ? thats some crazy hours you've stacked up in less then a year, seriously shit... i hope you macro or something |
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4/17/09 8:07:04 AM#8
One interesting thing that the graph does not show is the fact there is no real dip in activity at the 1 month mark, where people had to start paying for the game after the free month. But as someone above me already said, why does anyone care about this? Do you need an X-Fire graph to tell you if the game is fun or not? |
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4/17/09 8:20:31 AM#9
Originally posted by 3on1
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
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4/17/09 8:28:10 AM#10
Originally posted by javac
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
that's cause most of DF's player base is on for very long periods of time afk macroing :P
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4/17/09 8:30:24 AM#11
Originally posted by miagisan
lol, it's possible. i don't think macroing is *that* widespread though, plenty of people are thoroughly against it. |
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4/17/09 8:40:25 AM#12
Originally posted by javac
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
quoting my own reply...
combining this ballparking exercise with the other data point we have from back when DF was showing the number of concurrent users in the friends list: the highest number i observed there was close to 7000 concurrent users. using EVE data, where 250K known subs usually translates into 40-50K peak concurrent users (ie: approx 20% of total subs online at peak).
assuming that more people are probably online for a brand new game, say 30% of all DF subs == peak concurrent, we can approximate that around the time DF removed concurrent numbers from the friends list, that DF's sub numbers were probably in the vicinity of 23K shortly after release (7000 / 0.3).
so in all likeliness, DF subs have probably grown since release, from approx 20K up to somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40K subs.
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4/17/09 11:48:19 AM#13
Originally posted by javac
lol, it's possible. i don't think macroing is *that* widespread though, plenty of people are thoroughly against it.
Are you kidding. People never log off. when you are done playing for the day, you go into town and macro. Every town is populated by naked people macroing something. unattended macroing is like the auto-loot hack. So many people are doing it, it doesn't even feel like it is against the rules any more |
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4/17/09 11:51:43 AM#14
Originally posted by javac
quoting my own reply...
combining this ballparking exercise with the other data point we have from back when DF was showing the number of concurrent users in the friends list: the highest number i observed there was close to 7000 concurrent users. using EVE data, where 250K known subs usually translates into 40-50K peak concurrent users (ie: approx 20% of total subs online at peak).
assuming that more people are probably online for a brand new game, say 30% of all DF subs == peak concurrent, we can approximate that around the time DF removed concurrent numbers from the friends list, that DF's sub numbers were probably in the vicinity of 23K shortly after release (7000 / 0.3).
so in all likeliness, DF subs have probably grown since release, from approx 20K up to somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40K subs.
haha.. really? You are doing the EVE ratio, when in fact EVE lets you train skills while you are logged off, but darkfall requires you to be online and unattended macroing? Again, join a guild in DF and see how many people are online but aren't actually there. |
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4/17/09 12:06:13 PM#15
Originally posted by javac
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
^lol Does he realize in Eve you can train a skill while not even logged on? And in DF I see people macroing all over the place and I'm relatively new. Serious? Are you that blind? Dude just lost all credit, and from previous posts I should've known better. |
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Originally posted by Vinterkrig
really why do you care?
cause this same crap has always been used against me in discussions at these forums, i want to see what ppl make of it now, its entertaining to read at least.. |
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4/17/09 12:21:32 PM#17
Originally posted by bryan1980
doesn't affect the OBSERVED ratio of 40-50K online and 250K subs... and doesn't mean people play less than other games at all. i controlled for higher hours/player in DF but using a value of 30% instead of 20%. 30% implies an average playtime at peak of just over 7 hours per account per day. btw, you realise eve has a strong macro mining culture, right?
and btw, i *am* in a clan and i do macro while feeding my kid or making dinner, which is legal. it's not that widespread, maybe 5-10% i would guess are macroing at any one time, realistic example: say there's 30ish people at the bank and i can hear 2 macroers, that's 6.7%, or in my clan of 60, there might be 2 people macroing the grove. btw that's assuming they're actually macroing and not manually clicking but you get the point.
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4/17/09 12:37:34 PM#18
Originally posted by 3on1
I don't use X-fire and I don't knwo anyone who does. So.. by your logic.. people with the first name of A playing Darkfall reprsent the majority. Currently playing Real Life.. http://i36.tinypic.com/2uyod3k.gif For all your stalking needs.. |
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4/17/09 1:03:00 PM#19
Originally posted by Random_mage
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4/17/09 1:06:42 PM#20
You cant rely on Xfire numbers as most ppl dont use the service. I dont use xfire personally. Played : WOW, LOTRO, COH/COV, EQ2, SWG, and WAR. |
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